...The intellectual stimulation moves me to at least open my mind to accept the theory and possibly to act on the advice. All seems wonderful until I read the opposite viewpoint. Now all of a sudden the first article comes into question and the new article, convincing on its own, has now completely placed me in a qandry of what I should actually do.
No better example is found than right here on Wall Street. For every buy side analyst there is a sell side analyst making the opposing argument. One journal suggests sell and another cable network says buy. One brokerage firm recommends buy and another brokerage firm has a sell recommendation. You read and listen to all and at the end of the exercise you are more confused than if you had just landed on the planet. Why is this? Too much information? Is each entity trying to sell its own meaningful importance? Is there something going on that I am not aware of? Am I missing something? This ongoing confusion is compounded by the availability of research and opinion.
The simple answer is we're fortunate to have the opposing opinions; it demarcates the choices to follow. I have dealt with contrarian opinions for years and finally found my own trick for deciphering whose opinion to value over another. The best advice is to follow the advice that is right the most.
Sounds easy, but it really isn't. So I began with something easy. Pick two opposing market analsyts, chart the recommendation, the date given and the date of expected outcome. As an example, one analyst on Monday assures us the market is going to have a huge correction within 3 months, compared to the contrarian analsyt saying the exact opposite, no correction, but the market will be higher in 3 months. Chart these two opinions for accuracy. I promise in three 3 months one will be right and clearly one will be wrong. I know this is not very sophisticated, but in reality the simpler you make your own analysis, the better off you will be.
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